There were voices who wanted to scream hoarse and in fact did but got muffled under the booming voices and shadows of larger than life figures like former Fed Chief!
They were condemned as pessimists and were viewed as those who eternally want to be cynical!
You dont need to be an economist to predict the current global financial crisis.
Just look at the plain stock market capitalisation a few months before the crisis struck.
In the US and the other Western economies the collective stock market capitalisation was about 180% of their respective GDPs and in emerging economies like India it was even a near 200% of their respective GDPs.
If the stock market capitalisation rises a phenomenal 80% in just about 6-8 months time does it need an economist to foretell the doom ahead? Did the stock markets discover the hidden valuation of the corporate sector suddenly or has the nations productivity gone up by 80% in less than a year?
It is because of positive sentiment said the sentimental fools!
To put simply, the world is consuming more than they are producing!
Having said that to say that WHAT GOOD ARE ECONOMISTS ANYWAY, is an ignorant remark seeking sensationalism. Despite the crisis modern economists can ensure that the depression of the likes of 30s do not happen. Just because they now know how to address the issue which they are doing now.
Does it need an Economist to say that Lehmans gearing is 24-32 times? Simple arithmetic can tell it is fatal!
its written in the skanda puran; take some time off of your hectic schedules and read it carefully; things will be crystal clear; you won't complain anymore for the deterioration and hopelessness floating around.
Re: skanda puran
by rajagopal nambakam on Apr 21, 2009 01:09 PM
YES MY DEAR. YOU ARE 1000000000% CORRECT. ANCIENT HINDU SCRIPTURES, PURANAS, VEDAS & RELIGIOUS TEXTS DO EXPLAIN EVERYTHING VERY CLEARLY. WHAT DO WE CALL A MAN WHO CANT SEE RED SIGNAL ON THE ROAD, COLOUR BLIND OR MAD MAN. SO IS OUR SITUATION. WE ARE ALL BLIND & MAD, UNABLE TO SEE BEST OF LIFE, THRU THE WESTERN LENSE. BY THE WAY, ARE YOU INDIAN HINDU FROM PALOALTO? CONGRATS IN ANY CASE, TO BRING ABOUT ONE OF THE MOST VALUBLE, SENSIBLE, SUITABLE & APPLICABLE, DURING MODERN MAD CRAZY STUFF.
Re: Re: skanda puran
by Vikram Cavale on Apr 21, 2009 02:08 PM
True. Too much greed by man can only spell doom. As Gandhiji said, "World has enough to serve man;s need not his greed"
there is no option for agriculture and natural lifestyle.we all mankind have become very greedy.constructing bldgs,factories,resorts,malls,commercial complexes.the water table is gone down to serious depths.we are after development and new technology.Only Natural way of Lifestyle,and Agriculture will support our lives.No chemicals fertilisers,no pesticides,no hybrid seeds.this makes the land unfertile after 3 - 4 years.please think of next generation.the greed will end the entire mankind.
Re: economists
by Bhaskar Dutta on Apr 21, 2009 03:58 PM
See to it that you do not produce 10 children and see most becoming Jehadis, irrespective of religion, as now religious based terror is engulfing the world.
Re: economists
by kingfisher on Apr 21, 2009 01:09 PM
Sunil,you are right in your assessment. However don't expect the people to suddenly switch over from their "progress" oriented lifestyle abetted by technology to what most people would call "stone age" living.
Re: Re: economists
by Vikram Cavale on Apr 21, 2009 01:40 PM
Right observation. Too much consumerism. Home food being replaced by Pizzas, so that people can do away with cooking. You never know, man mught have to start eating electronic cards and gadgets for survival. Only then he might revert back to argiculture and more natural living. Until then consumerism will put us deeper into hole.
like Nouriel Roubini, Paul Krugman, Josef Stieglitz or Robert Shiller....but then you were deaf....deeply engrossed in the Iraq war....Now if you say,"we have not heard you" is correct...but "nobody predicted it" is wrong... People predicted, you did not want to hear...
Re: Many economists predicted.....
by Deepak Nagda on Apr 21, 2009 01:15 PM
Absolutely right. Many economists had warned against the deficits the US was running up, and against the extremely low (at times negative) savings rate of the US public. Things were rocking, so who paid any attention to them? They were derided, and the fat cats of Wall Street, especially the bankers, were listened to and regulations were loosened or not put in place. The results are here!! If you want to blame the economists, go back and see which of them had warned about the pitfalls, and which had ignored them painting a rosy picture. Then you will know whom to blame, and whom to listen to, in case you really want to. The US has great strenths, so will come out of this eventually, but if they don't mend their ways, another such crisis is inevitable. Ask any competent and honest economist.........
the above mentioned 3 economists are foreign educated and are considered as a dream team of economists corporates and media considers best for India.
But at the end of the day a roadside fool would question that if at all they were a "dream team" of economists then why is rice sell at 40Rs / kg when the same rice was sell ing at Rs18 / Kg when this dream team took over the economy in 2004?
Re: Manmohan, Ahluwalia, chidambaram - Dream Team?
by Subhramanya shiva on Apr 21, 2009 12:52 PM
goto subs of india u will get at lower price. bcoz corporates like reliance, super chain markets r creating more demand by purchasing the commodities in future market and creating the narrowing the supply we still find price @ peaks.
thy r buying goods @ very low cost ( imean to say very very low cost) and selling @ 30-100 times of the prices in their AC stores. You know ,.. we (most of people so called well placed / settled in IT/business world) r prefering thz stores instead of going to kiran & general stores, sabhji mandies etc.,
LIKE subhikha, we can also turn reliance & super stores ...backward by steping to old trading system.
Re: Manmohan, Ahluwalia, chidambaram - Dream Team?
by kingfisher on Apr 21, 2009 12:43 PM
Revolutionary These Three Mosquitoe-ers basically chant the corporate mantra as the panacea for development and obviously in return these corporates reciprocate by lavishing praise and endorsing them as the country's future with the money that these corporates spend via advertising. It is a well oiled business machine that doesn't suffer from any breakdowns.
Re: Re: Manmohan, Ahluwalia, chidambaram - Dream Team?
by kingfisher on Apr 21, 2009 12:44 PM
correct to - endorsing them as the country's future with the help of the media which needs the money that these corporates spend via advertising.
Re: Manmohan, Ahluwalia, chidambaram - Dream Team?
by Vikram Cavale on Apr 21, 2009 01:45 PM
As I said earlier, very soon things like mobile phones and digicams will be cheaper than a kg of rice and other basic food grains. And more and more economists of this gr8 world will bag Nobel prize.
Human greed is the worst enemy of mankind. The selfish approach of people in power/decision making not withstanding the basics of fundamental growth under the influence of bookish knowledge which is nowhere near to the ground realities is the curse of modern era to entire humanity. Still the damage caused so far can be mitigated by not allowing the same trend to flurish unchecked. 1. Do not allocate agricultural land for any other purpose, basically for industrial use. 2. Do not allow the basic cost of flats to above 20 % margin over the cost of basic raw materials as cement mortar, steel rods etc. Basic construction cost must be guided by the local civic body/government. 3. Inflation in shares / materials to not be allowed to beyond 20% and 3 % annually.
The problem with the American system is, there are more cheerleaders than the skeptics. This shows optimism, but at the same time it encourages to overlook crucial facts. Now economists are too much engrossed with the data, charts, figures. But what they really lack is the understanding of human psychology. Never forget, people like David Ricardo, Karl Marx, PC Mahalanobis were not trained economists. But they became frontrunner thinker in the field. The "wirtschaftwuender" by Germany which was mostly credited with Edward Kreuzer was a politician. So, when you neglect "people" in the stream of economics and try to derive things with trends, past records or something like things, you will overlook many of these things. I like continental European economists, mostly the Austrian school. They had skepticism as well as optimism. Though they were not vastly encouraged in European socialistic policy making. Skeptics survived in recession. Cheerleaders are gone. As Josef Stieglitz rightly said,"Milton Friedman doctrinated many economies like Chile, which was a disaster, whatever the popular perception may be." Most great economists work with abstract things like most great scientists. Forecaster economists are mediocre economists. No wonder they failed to predict.
