Re: Biggest Mistake
by Dhawal Thakkar on Nov 12, 2010 04:39 PM
He had a life line ( he can try 2 times) so the chances to win was 58% ( 25% in try 1 ( 1 of 4) and 33% in try 2 ( 1 of 3) )
on 58 % Chances- he could have won 4 times the amount. great probablity - it was a good calculated risk , but failed- any way good try Great guts...
Re: Re: Biggest Mistake
by Arun Kumar on Nov 12, 2010 07:42 PM
That's not how probability works my friend. Its multiplicative. So (1/4) for first try, and (3/4)*(1/3) for second try (he will go to second try only if the first is wrong, the probability of which is 3/4. So total prob = (1/4) (1/4) = (1/2) which is 50%.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Biggest Mistake
by taher hussain on Nov 14, 2010 06:37 AM
getting the right answer on the first try - 25% getting the right answer on the second try - 33%*33% = 10.89% getting a right answer = first try or second try = 25% 10.89% = 35.89%
whether agree from it or not but destiny set by our stars play a measure role in our decesions and in our personality. m not a supersitious but have u ever thought why it happens that some tasks we achieved very easily without no extra effort and some tasks though repeated attempts but not successful. even if we know our mistakes and determined to change it but in a particular condition we behave silly because it is destined to be like that. at that particular moment we are in the hand of controlling factor and we behave accordingly. we regret it later but the next time same cycle. all readers think about it. but i checked it and found in most of cases.
so he is not fool but he is destined to that thing always. and from his school time this thing is clear. defnitely he would regret every incidence later but he always traps in same cycle. so pls be sympathetic to him
Re: he is not a fool but destined to be a fool
by Dhawal Thakkar on Nov 12, 2010 04:46 PM
He had a life line ( he can try 2 times) so the chances to win was 58% ( 25% in try 1 ( 1 of 4) and 33% in try 2 ( 1 of 3) )
on 58 % Chances- he could have won 4 times the amount. great probablity - it was a good calculated risk , but failed- any way good try Great guts...
Re: he is not a fool but destined to be a fool
by Dhawal Thakkar on Nov 12, 2010 04:44 PM
He had a life line ( he can try 2 times) so the chances to win was 58% ( 25% in try 1 ( 1 of 4) and 33% in try 2 ( 1 of 3) )
on 58 % Chances- he could have won 4 times the amount. great probablity - it was a good calculated risk , but failed- any way good try Great guts...
Re: he is not a fool but destined to be a fool
by Dhawal Thakkar on Nov 12, 2010 04:43 PM
He had a life line ( he can try 2 times) so the chances to win was 58% ( 25% in try 1 ( 1 of 4) and 33% in try 2 ( 1 of 3) )
on 58 % Chances- he could have wone 400% the amount. great probablity - it was a good calculated risk , but failed- any way good try Great guts...
Re: he is not a fool but destined to be a fool
by Dhawal Thakkar on Nov 12, 2010 04:41 PM
He had a life line ( he can try 2 times) so the chances to win was 58% ( 25% in try 1 ( 1 of 4) and 33% in try 2 ( 1 of 3) )
on 58 % Chances- he could have wone 400% the amount. great probablity - it was a good calculated risk , but failed- any way good try Great guts...
At the time of taking the question, while the probability of getting it right was 50%, its worth taking the risk only if you have some idea on the path. There is no point in showing the guts with uncalculated risk.
In the corporate world, business houses do place bet but then they cover the risk well and ensure that bad investment doesn't impacts the company. In this case of KBC, it was 97% loss.
Believing people in good faith, particularly in professional field and trying to be honest, reliable and trying to eradicate corruption, well it did cost me my career and and now I am a caricature of my old self..
For once Indians should come out these mean thinking which we have been into all our lives.
For christ sake that money was coming out of a game which should be played like a game and not with just the money on the mind.
He would have definitely thought through a million times if it was his hard earned money that he was about to lose.
So I think Batar was brave enough to take such a chance in this game and losing this does not mean he lost something that he earned. You never know for all that matters what all pain he might have required to go through had he earned this 5 cr or even 1 cr for that matter.
Batar.. you are better off mate with that 32 lakhs.
I am Yash 50 M from Ahmedabad. I opted for Voluntary Retirement Scheme in 2001 from Govt. job and started workinting in Corporte Sector, hoping that my family will understand the changed scenario and cooperate me. But being an emotional and responsible head of the family, I could not stop my family from spending money by extra vagant expenses, which I could not afford. At a later stage, when money is exhaused, they blame me only for their extra vagant expenses. This is thing taught me a lesson of not being emotional and balance our income and expenditure in a positive manner otherwise they themselve leave u behind and blame u for any and all mis-haps. Here due to my sensitive nature, I did not restrict them. But now I have changed my stand, my thinking and my way of living by being realistic, so again enjoying life. Hope even a man will learn a lesson, my writing this thing will become fruitful.
Re: Guts.....- Perfect calculation
by Dhantannan on Nov 12, 2010 02:29 PM
Hmm.. but still.. for middle class it was big risk , more so bcoz question was a blinder with options maiking no sense.
