The success rate of Exit Polls in India is not better than the form of the Kolkata Knight Riders under John Buchanan. So, there is nothing worthwhile talking about this!
There is no need to discuss further.Congress is forming the govt. Both SP and BSP will support congress. Last time also they both given support from outside to congress. Left will give outside support to Congress and TMC will be in the Ministry. Similarly, both DMK and AIDMK will give support to congress, one party outside support and one party in the Ministry. BJP, shivsena, Akalidal and JDS and TDP will sit in opposition. There is a chance of split in TDP with one group supporting congress.
Re: Congress already won and going to form Govt.
by saamanyudu on May 14, 2009 11:55 AM
You can include TRS,PRP from AP, JDU from Gujrat , and outside supporters as .Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP), Jamaat-e-Islami,Pakistan Muslim League also in your list
It looks all the Channels have given Congress advantage, it is laughable, how they get seats in UP and Bihar. As far as present trends are concerned UPA has lost its earlier allies and struggling to exist in the fray particularly in UP and Bihar where as in the case of NDA they have gained by getting new partners in to fold for example TRS. In AP Mahakutami had fared well in elections where as exit poll says 29 parliament seats to Congress it was the figure of previous elections.These exit polls conducted by the channels are biased and just it is lie. In 2004 elections exit poll results were went wrong. After Godra, the elections in Gujarat exit poll and surveys predicted Modi is out but he got 2/3 mjority. Particularly in AP the channels have taken the figures of YSR and telecsted on channels. Now situation is that even YSR and Congress party are not confidence of getting majority in the Assembly. As per NDTV 29 parliament seats, Congress should get minimum of 200 Assembly seats but the situation is different. Congress is major loser in BIHAR, UP, MAHARASTRA, TAMILNADU, ANDHRA PRADESH, MADYA PRADEH, GUJARATH, MAHARASTRA, CHATTISGARH ,KARNATAKA, no special gains for them in Rajastan and Orissa. Congress is going to gain only in Kerala, W.B(because of Mamata)how can they get more than 2004 figure. it is most unrealistic results of exit poll. We do not depend on scientific methods in forecasting we mostly depends on assumptions that is the reason it goes wrong.
Exit polls can just show the trends and not the actual seats as has been proven time and again... and what is the trend....One year back most of them were giving 250 to 275 seats to UPA and 150 TO 175 seats to NDA....But now the picture has changed completely....UPA and NDA seem to be neck and neck in all the exit poll result...THE TREND IS IN FAVOUR OF THE NDA AND AGAINST THE UPA....
BJP-192 JDU-20 AIDMK-16 PMK,MDMK-5 Sivsena-8 Akali-8 LJP-3(beeing most opportunists) BJD-12 AGP&others-5 RLD-4 TRS -4 TDP-16(as they will never support Congress and if they cannot form 3rd front Gov) Independents &others --20 ------------------------- total--293 plus TC mamta -5(they will dump Congress due to left support of UPA ---------------------------
BSP --25 =If NDA agrees Mayabati for PM then BSP will join Gov formation otherwise they will give outside support
NDA is clear winer to form Gov without any hassels of 3rd front,forth fron which UPA will find it hard to get .Forming of UPA Gov is very very difficult due to hard nuts of left front,3rd front,4rth front
Re: Re: NDA is clear winer
by abboral boral on May 14, 2009 11:16 AM
dear chaitanya ,just think about all the 3rd front and 4rth front people .Are they really wants development or they want their pound and flesh .Think of the characters of Lalu,left ,mulyam,amar singh ,JDS (Devegodra).If UPA does not talk about development and only want pound and flesh then UPA may come to power with these all guttery parties where as NDA is intact and virtually no bargain except TDP and BSP .In UPA wvery party withone seat will bargain and if at all god forbid they form the Gov then there will be nowork for the Gov except saving skin for rest of 5 years .This is my analysis .
Re: Re: NDA is clear winer
by abboral boral on May 14, 2009 11:28 AM
Kalpesh maroo analysis thik che and we all want development only particularly Rural India where 70% people still living underdeveloped last 60 years .So UPA with all these greedy parties will be a disaster for India because UPA will dump surely Dr Manmohan Sigh for taking nasty help from all nasty parties .He is the only person on this side who talk of developments and actually did two great things for India .One is 1991 economic liberisation under able leadership of late PM P.V.Narsimha Rao and himself in 2008 nuclear civil power deal with 35 developed countries in the world .If 1991 deal cam put India to so developed nation with in 17 years then imagine next generation development with nuclear deal with in 10 years and carying further development which NDA only capable with so many performers like MOdi,Shivraj Chouhan,Raman Singh,Nitish Kumar ,LKA as PM ,Chandrababu Naidu available at the moment where as it is hard to find such persons in UPa and allies minusDr MMS
Did any channel compared their own exit poll with their own opinion poll aired just a month ago? Did any channel compared the credibility of their own 2004 exit polls with actual 2004 election results? Why is media expecting others to be transparent and candid, acting in a shoddy manner like hypocrites?
Pronov roy didn't spend money to have decent exit pole. They catch few hundred people and rest were analyzed based on circumstance in particular area using software. They are goof ing.
All media houses are biased towards congress/pseudo-sec forces but lets forget their prejudices for a moment but even methodically the exit polls are flawed. The reason is too small sample size and wrong selection of sample collection area. We have 77 crore eligible voters out of that about 60% have voted, that makes total 46 crore people have voted. And the sample sizes of most channels are about 70,000 persons total country wide, which is about 0.015% of the total voters. Its ridiculous to rely on such a small samples for predictions. Moreover most of the channels group dont go to the remote villages of a particular constituency for survey rather they stay in cities or towns and in past we have seen quite a startling different pattern between cities and villages.
Re: BJP paid members.
by Milana Export on May 14, 2009 10:20 AM
Mr.Iyer, But i have seen S0n1a, raul, bianca are packing their bags for vacation in italy. raul's father Q. is waiting at italy with all swiss money. wish them happy journey.
Re: Re: BJP paid members.
by ramesh iyer on May 14, 2009 10:21 AM
frustrated huh? don't worry. If you look at some these congresswallas you feel that they are basically decent guys(with some exceptions of course). But if you see the BJP wallas you feel frghtened. they all look like goondas modi, lka et all except for vajpayee who seems to be a decent man. that is why bjp is no match for congress. see after every election their voteshare is going to reduce slowly and one day they will become just like left. controlling one or two states
Re: Re: Re: Re: BJP paid members.
by amritha chaithanya on May 14, 2009 10:57 AM
ho enough of this ,s0nia ,vatican ,italy,,an old rotten fart,heard n bored,,come out with somethin new dude...i think out of frustration u r tellin dont worry,use navaratna oil n stay cool...hmmm hmmm Sour Grapes...
EXIT poll prediction failed earlier time too. eg: Last Karnataka Assembly Elections - BJP will Get 85-95 seats. Last Gujarath Assembly Elections: Modi is out.
Last Delhi & Rajastan Assembly Elections: Hung Assemblies Last Lok Sabha elections. :Advantage NDA Why to beleive this Exit Poll Preditions?
