Re: Rahul - 25 rallies, Modi- >400
by piri on May 14, 2014 02:07 PM
Even if Rahul had conducted 500 rallies, the UPA would still lose as the anti incumbency after 10 years of their rule is very strong. The BJP only had to ensure that its voice is heard to become the largest single party in the 2014 election.
This seems to be a very conservative estimate. Won't be surprised if BJP alone crosses 250 with NDA comfortably cruising to 290. All the best BJP and NDA!
Come May 16th all of you will be there for a shock and awe.
Psephology in India is still a nascent science.
It can predict when the situation is simpler.
Now take these into account and see how complicated the matters are. In fact, it is more complicated than in 2004, and 2009 when all the pollsters got it wrong
Roughly half of the seats have multi corner contests. i.e. 275 out of this one third i.e. nearly 100 have Quadragular contests which is any psephologist's nightmare
To complicate the matters further, most of these quadrangular contests are in UP which no one can get right.
In UP alone a 2% swing away from BJP will reduce their tally by 20 seats.
Re: NDA WILL NOT CROSS 235; WAIT AND WATCH
by Indian on May 14, 2014 02:12 PM
Hope you are on the forum on 16th May. Please be a man of your word dont run away, I will be here too
die hard flatters of Nehru- Gandhi family will ever say that the party lost due to corruption , price rise and their amorous leaders . They will never admit that they lost because of incompetent ministers or wrong polices . they would say that Rahul is not responsible and would blame people for not voting for them. rather they would felicitate Rahul for getting at least 70 seats because they know they were not worth even that number.
kangrase may allow 3rd front to form up. but never a BJP govt.
these BJP fools r getting carried away with the 5 states elections happened recently. they dont know it is a kang1 trap.
All the_non-CONgi_parties are happy that they have been winning state elections after state elections. None of them care to have the EVMs replaced. And this is exactly what the_CONgress_party wants. The CONgress_guys know the act of hacking EVMs judiciously. They dont hack the state elections and so the non-CONgress_folks win. This puts those parties into complacency.They dont hanker for reverting to the old style ballot paper system. And at that point of time if the non_CONgress_parties claim that EVMs were hacked, the CONgress_party would gleefully claim that it is a case of sour grapes.
y.day in Andhra pradesh local bodies elections released. kangrase and YSRCP was down under gutter in both the regions of A.P.
But u see in may 16th what is going to happen. things wud be reversed, most of the M.P seats goes to kangrase and ysrcp. then they gracefully claims it "becaz of cross voting of ppl".
Jairam Ramesh would probably not have convinced himself with his arguments of "collective responsibility". What was clear was that Rahul's leadership was totally lackluster. His thinking and campaigning was totally in a way it has traditionally been while Modi took the campaign to a different level. The Congress has won elections on the basis of freebies till now. From the lampooning he got after his first ever interview, the one done by Arnab Goswami, it was clear that Rahul's traditional thinking and strategy would not work. Yet, the Congress talked about reservation in Pvt Sector, more reservations based on communal lines, etc. He therefore alienated a whole generation of youngsters who felt threatened about joblessness. Yet the Congress went on talking the same language of freebies. The Congress, almost since 1977, has done politics with the aim of winning elections. It has worked till now and clearly in could not work for eternity. Sadly, no lessons seem to have been learnt.
