Although most of the exit polls confirm a robust tally for NDA led by BJP and there is unanimity that it is heading towards a majority or atleast close to one with just two outliers, one by Chanakya which predicts a whopping 340 seat tally for NDA and the other by Outlook which presents a conservative 229 for NDA, yet what is striking in these polls is the wide State-wise divergence which has triggered huge public scepticism that such predictions might meet the fate of 2004 and 2009. It is evident that the Pollsters have not learnt from their debacles and are set to repeat history as they have not learnt their lessons. Those who ignore history are condemned to repeat it. When the Opinion and exit polls are failing even in many Western Countries, there is no guarantee that they would work in a complex and divergent society like India with such humungous population divided into varied social groups antagonistic to one another. To make matters worse, India lacks professional pollsters today and the Media is only conducting such exercises as popcorn freak shows to enhance their TRP ratings and shore up their advertisement revenues. They are being offered for mere entertainment value to have viewers glued up to Television sets and have fun when their preferred party or individual get a thumbs up, they also get worked up. So, considering their awful track record, it would be better to wait for the final results.
Re: Those who ignore history are condemned to repeat it
by Rajaram on May 14, 2014 04:59 PM
u r right. In states like UP and Bihar, it is very difficult to predict the outcome due to too many strong political parties in the arena. No body predicted an out right win for SP in the last UP state election, but stll SP got the numbers since the majority needed to win is just one vote.
for 16th. there is a saying 'if we can wait for the food to be cooked, why not wait for the food to cool?' V Ramanathan village rengasamudram tamilnadu
After the poor performance UPA II, NDA must come to power. Certainly BJP is going to be the largest party. But it will be difficult for them to cross the mark of 215. Their partners may naster another 30 seats and that makes a tally of 245. But somehow they can come out with a fragile combination crossing the no of 272. This could be good for the country since such razor thin majority will keep RSS under control from pursuing Hindutva policies. But the problem could be implementing economic policies. BJP needs to implement many policies which they had stone walled during UPA regime. If the same scenario gets repeated, then the country is in for problem.
Re: Its wrong
by Vascado on May 14, 2014 03:11 PM
The BJP, even if it sweeps UP, Bihar and Maharasthara as per these surveys, still cannot cross 220 at best. Those who understand the geographical limitations of BJP and its reach will understand what I am trying to say and will be interested in my argument.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Its wrong
by Vascado on May 14, 2014 03:26 PM
I hope you do not blame hacking of the EVMs on 16th just like you did in 2004 and 2009 in a case of sour grapes.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Its wrong
by SHAN BAID on May 14, 2014 04:01 PM
Raja,that has been intriguing argument all along by a section of bl0ggers. Instead of making effort for tactical voting by maj0rity comprising 85% population,they preferred toAbuse 15%
The exit polls are on expected lines as common sense has better prediction value than these so called sampling polls. The reason being that the sample is taken from the class which is more flambuoyant i.e. BJP cadre and thats why it is always inclined towards BJP.inspite of that BJP is likely to be very close to majority. the highlights 1.The vote is more against the current govt than Modi wave. Modi factor was only to consolidate the votes to BJP instead of AAP. 2.AAP seems to have done tremendously well even if gets 5 seats and 30% votes in its maiden attempt.Pl note that they did it solely on their own against the winds of pr0paganda machinary unleashed by affluent parties.BJP got only 2 seats after years of 5trugg1e and R55 cadre support. 3. AAP has impacted the course of fight in more than one way and if BJP fails to utilise this 0pp0rtunity AAP is there ready for upsurge 4.BJP should be thankful to AAP which by default helped it sp1it cong votes(so BJP should ap0l0gise for all aggre5510n shown)
Re: CRUX OF MATTER
by Raja on May 14, 2014 03:08 PM
If AAP had 30 percent vote share they would have deciminated BJP. They are having according to surveys max 2.5 to 3 percent vote share.
Re: Re: CRUX OF MATTER
by SHAN BAID on May 14, 2014 03:41 PM
Its 3% all India but 37% Delhi,average 30% in Delhi,Punjab and Maharashtra. Even then,tell me a single party in the history of India which rose so fast.Accept the facts even if u r hardc0re BJP supporter as I did about BJP figures
Re: Re: CRUX OF MATTER
by anjum faraz on May 14, 2014 08:08 PM
i think the bjp will if it comes will come on stilts .it will keep it in control.full majority is very dangerous bcos sangh ideology will take india back to stone age
Re: Re: Re: Extremist
by balu on May 14, 2014 03:29 PM
is not congress imposing to live with bangladeshis, pakistanis, tibiteans, converting hindus to christians is this what you call ideology . Let us live in this country who are indians. No pakistani flag during cricket match. NO US julum on us and like with pride.
Re: Extremist
by vidwan soni on May 14, 2014 07:29 PM
If Modi keeps them away, he will be pulled up. Already Giriraj is spiting venom, but BJP is quite!
Counting day nears and we have cries from cyber goons engaged by Modi of EVM hacking and manipulation. Well it is a case of sour grapes. Such games were played even in 2004 and 2009. If you express an apprehension as to how a rash of opinion and exit polls could go wrong ? Well, in that case, you can as well as rationalize as to why these polls need not be manipulated ? Afterall, Operation prime Minister did reveal as to how such polls are manipulated by major parties with the help of money bags.
Re: COUNTING DAY IS NEAR AND IT IS A CASE OF SOUR GRAPES ALREADY
by jatin joshipura on May 14, 2014 03:02 PM
this reaffirms my assumption that christiain missionaries have voted mostly against Modi
Re: Re: COUNTING DAY IS NEAR AND IT IS A CASE OF SOUR GRAPES ALRE
by Vascado on May 14, 2014 03:05 PM
Not merely Christian missionaries, a majority of so-called Hindus too and Atheists have voted against Modi.
Re: Re: Re: Re: COUNTING DAY IS NEAR AND IT IS A CASE OF SOUR GRA
by Vascado on May 14, 2014 03:20 PM
Even assuming BJP sweeps the polls with a Modi Tsunami, it is not going to get more than 32% votes and the NDA 40% at best. So, in that event since Modi has this made this as a self contest, 60% of the population have voted against him. Minorities form just 20% of the population and the rest are so-called Hindus. So, a majority would have voted against him. He becomes victorious in the flawed first past the poll system model.
Re: Re: Re: COUNTING DAY IS NEAR AND IT IS A CASE OF SOUR GRAPES
by vidwan soni on May 14, 2014 07:31 PM
Vascado, they are not illiterate fanatics like Modi-supporters
Re: Re: COUNTING DAY IS NEAR AND IT IS A CASE OF SOUR GRAPES ALRE
by Vascado on May 14, 2014 03:24 PM
Cyber goons of Modi have once again commenced their verbal abuse not having the patience to listen to alternative view points which shows their fascist mindset just like their mentor. Anybody who attacks Modi and BJP will be slammed as a Christian or a Muslim.
Re: Re: Re: COUNTING DAY IS NEAR AND IT IS A CASE OF SOUR GRAPES
by vidwan soni on May 14, 2014 07:34 PM
Vascado-so they think (as they daily write comments on Rediff also)only Hindus are pro-India and it is their hate for other religions.
Re: COUNTING DAY IS NEAR AND IT IS A CASE OF SOUR GRAPES ALREADY
by balu on May 14, 2014 03:34 PM
85% there are chances that EVM manupulators will work over time . Still we have to keep our fingures crossed. As we know bar dancers technology is more powerful. 200% christians and muslims had voted against Modi
Re: Re: COUNTING DAY IS NEAR AND IT IS A CASE OF SOUR GRAPES ALRE
by jatin joshipura on May 14, 2014 03:39 PM
How did NDA came to power in 1999 if Elections were rigged by congress and EC?
Re: Re: COUNTING DAY IS NEAR AND IT IS A CASE OF SOUR GRAPES ALRE
by vidwan soni on May 14, 2014 07:37 PM
balu, their votes got divided in Cong, AAP & some others & Hindu votes mostly went to Modi-so may win.
