More than facts what is more important is how you read the facts.
The trend shows that BJP has been gaining voting percentage. Communists may win the next election or the one after but you can ignore the trend at your own peril.
Re: @piri
by piri on Jan 07, 2019 05:06 PM
The BJP has regained its old vote share, not broken new ground !
Perhaps in the coming years, with the votes of small segments of Keralites who might be persuaded to think religion first before anything else, their vote share may crawl up a few percentage points. But that is as far as it would go !
Anyone who knows politics in Kerala and who has been watching what young Keralites are talking about (it comes through in multiple forums, you know) will know that the BJP getting 30 percent plus votes or thereabouts (required to win a seriously significant share of the seats) is simply impossible in the foreseeable future !
Re: Re: @piri
by Vijay Sahani on Jan 07, 2019 05:17 PM
In the 2006 assembly polls in Kerala, the BJP got 4.75 per cent of votes. The Congress’ vote share was 24.09 per cent. In the 2011 state polls, the BJP’s vote share increased to 6.03 per cent. The Congress got 26.4 per cent votes. In the 2016 state elections the Congress vote share shrunk to 23.7 per cent while the BJP’s further increased to 15 per cent.
Re: Re: Re: @piri
by Vijay Sahani on Jan 07, 2019 05:28 PM
The fact that BJP has gone from 2 in 1984 to 282 in 2014 in Lok Sabha and CPIM's fall from 43 in 2004 to 9 in 2014 shows that BJP understands voter psychology better than CPIM.
Re: Re: Re: @piri
by piri on Jan 08, 2019 01:52 AM
You cant interpret the data as you wish !
And....you have to read up in detail before you attempt to interpret data and draw your conclusions !
1. The vote share of 15 % in 2016 did not go to the BJP. It went to the BJP - BDJS coalition. The BDJS is a political party formed by the Ezhava leader Vellappally Natesan at the behest of the BJP to draw a part of the Ezhava caste votes. Out of the 15 %, more than 4 % was brought by this party for the alliance in 2016.
Unfortunately for the BJP, the BDJS is out of the alliance with it now and Mr Natesan is now busy cosying up to the Left front !
In fact, he even offered to actively co-ordinate the formation of the Vanitha mathil and was made one of the convenors by Pinarayi Vijayan and he contributed to the Mathil becoming a thundering success !
2. The 10.4 % vote share the BJP got in the 2016 assembly election is not the highest it got in elections in Kerala. In the 2004 LS election (with Modi unheard of and with only LK Advani coming on 2 half hearted low profile visits), the BJP won 11.2 % of the votes in Kerala !
There is more to data than you can presume with partial reading !!
Re: @piri
by piri on Jan 07, 2019 05:09 PM
The BJP has regained its old vote share, not broken new ground !
Perhaps in the coming years, with the votes of small segments of Keralites who might be persuaded to think religion first before anything else, their vote share may crawl up a few percentage points. But that is as far as it would go !
Anyone who knows politics in Kerala and who has been watching what young Keralites are talking about (it comes through in multiple forums, you know) will know that the BJP getting 30 percent plus votes or thereabouts (required to win a seriously significant share of the seats) is simply impossible in the foreseeable future !
Re: Re: @piri
by P S SHAH on Jan 07, 2019 05:56 PM
Oye ever stinking kaliye, you have absolutely no answer. However as per your habit, you will go on writing nonsense as per your thinking.
Even though couple of women devotees (you can't call them devotees but activists) have visited Sabarimala and taken the darshan of Lord Ayappa, its not a victory of constitution or women with respect to equality because none of the common women devotees could easily go to Sabarimala. These were activists who were bold and courageous and who had nothing to do with devotion seriously, but surely to prove their equality and kudos to them that they dared to go inspite of such a huge protests from fanatic devotees, especially women, Nair Samajam, BJP, RSS by risking their lives. Ofcoruse even this could happen only with the State Govt. adamant to support women going to sabarimala which is again a political show of strength and with huge police protection. Is this the way we want out women get equality. Its a shame that Supreme Court's decision has no value or consideration by the devotees, Nair Samajam and BJP/RSS when there should have no protest at all in this issue. Even if they had a difference of opinion, they should have just given a review petition. And is this the ruling Govt. who is supporting and leading the protests and violence shattering the Supreme Court's verdict. Is this the ruling party from whom we expect upholding the Constitution. Its really surprising inspite of entire Kerala being put on unrest by the protestors against the SC verdict, they are neither slammed with contempt of court by SC nor the High Court of Kerala even bothered to uphold SC verdict
Re: It won't be a final victory of women
by arungopal agarwal on Jan 07, 2019 12:04 PM
What these activists want to prove, women power, or women liberty, or arrogance or attack on faith. Unable to understand. why these activists are silent on Halala and triple talaq.
Re: It won't be a final victory of women
by arungopal agarwal on Jan 07, 2019 12:04 PM
What these activists want to prove, women power, or women liberty, or arrogance or attack on faith. Unable to understand. why these activists are silent on Halala and triple talaq.
Let us join hands to eradicate poverty from our Country than wasting our time to debate on Sabarimala issue. There are many other social issues to be addressed first than women entry in Temple. Kerala is struggling to recover from the aftermath of a massive flood which happened in Aug-Sept 2018 and thousands of people are still suffering. The Govt is more concerned about Sabarimala issue rather than resolving the problems of the flood victims.
Re: There are major issues in the country than Sabarimala.
by Vijay Sahani on Jan 07, 2019 11:26 AM
This is like saying that "i'm more concerned about the leaking roof of my house as of now and hence I will not be bothered why my daughter's school is not permitting her to participate in sports".
convey his point, Aakar Patel has omitted to note finer details !
They are
1. It is not the BJP that won 15 percent vote share in Kerala in 2016. It is the BJP - BDJS (led by Vellappally Natesan) coalition that got it. The share of the BJP in that is only 10.4 percent !
2. It is wrong to suggest that this 10.4 percent vote share is the highest the BJP has ever managed in Kerala. In the 2004 LS election (when there was no Narendra Modi or his high expenditure, high propaganda campaign and the only campaign efforts were 2 half hearted low profile visits by L K Advani), the BJP won a little more than 11 percent of the vote share in Kerala.
3. In the immediate aftermath of the Sabarimala flare up in Nov, 2018, by polls were conducted to 39 local bodies across all the 14 districts of Kerala. The BJP candidates, backed immensely by their state leadership, had only one campaign theme - the supposed violation of tradition at the Sabarimala temple by the left front govt. The BJP ended up getting 13.2 percent votes in these 39 seats, 1.6 percent less than the vote share it got in these seats in the previous election !!
And embarrassingly, the BJP got a greatly reduced vote share in the 2 local bodies in Pandalam - which saw the maximum extent of agitation about Sabarimala by the BJP !!
convey his point, Aakar Patel has omitted to note finer details !
They are
1. It is not the BJP that won 15 percent vote share in Kerala in 2016. It is the BJP - BDJS (led by Vellappally Natesan) coalition that got it. The share of the BJP in that is only 10.4 percent !
2. It is wrong to suggest that this 10.4 percent vote share is the highest the BJP has ever managed in Kerala. In the 2004 LS election (when there was no Narendra Modi or his high expenditure, high propaganda campaign and the only campaign efforts were 2 half hearted low profile visits by L K Advani), the BJP won a little more than 11 percent of the vote share in Kerala.
3. In the immediate aftermath of the Sabarimala flare up in Nov, 2018, by polls were conducted to 39 local bodies across all the 14 districts of Kerala. The BJP candidates, backed immensely by their state leadership, had only one campaign theme - the supposed violation of tradition at the Sabarimala temple by the left front govt. The BJP ended up getting 13.2 percent votes in these 39 seats, 1.6 percent less than the vote share it got in these seats in the previous election !!
And embarrassingly, the BJP got a greatly reduced vote share in the 2 local bodies in Pandalam - which saw the maximum extent of agitation about Sabarimala by the BJP !!
Re: In his hurry to
by Vijay Sahani on Jan 07, 2019 11:17 AM
Like all people who are drunk with power, communists too cannot see the writing on the wall.
Re: Re: Re: In his hurry to
by Vijay Sahani on Jan 07, 2019 01:44 PM
The TREND is that BJP is gaining votes. Communists may win the next election and maybe the one after but the trend shows that BJP is gaining slowly but steadily. Ignore at your own peril.
