I am surprised to note that even I I M s are making false Presumptions in 'Feasibility Study' of Bullet Trains.
In 2036 , how can the fare be as low as Rs. 1500 for 300km distance (This is what IIM Ahmedabad presumes in their report)??? With average inflation of 8-10% in Indian Economy, it should be clear that Rs.100 in 2016 would be equivalent to Rs.600 in 2036. This means that even 'Garib Rath Express' Fare would rise up to Rs.2000.00 for 300 km distance, in 2036. Then, how can you expect the Fare of Bullet Train to be as cheap as Rs. 1500 in 2036????
Assuming that the Fare of 300 km journey by Bullet Train to be Rs. 4500.00 in 2036 (which should not be taken as expensive in 2036), it would be clear that Bullet Train would need merely 33 Trips or 17 bidirectional Trips per day for its successful operation. Adding cascading effect gained by Real Estate and SEZs, I am sure that the Deal of Japanese Bullet Train is 100% Feasible.
I am shocked, how can IIM produce incorrect 'Feasibility Study' Reports???
Re: MISLEADING PRESUMPTION BY IIM -A
by mohit on Apr 24, 2016 01:36 PM
Mr. Joshi. It seems you have no idea how economic and financial analysis is done. We do not consider inflation because inflation affects both costs and benefits equally. If the fare will rise in 2036, so will the costs rise. all estimation in the future is done at present costs.
But Safety of People and Animals near the Railway tracks must be of Prime Importance - We see lots of Violations in and around Railway property like Trespassing and Unauthorized crossing, Animals looking for food also get mowed down in the process.
The Bullet trains must be run inside Tunnels / Overbridges / Underground like Foreign countries.
India needs to Modernize Railways quickly and we are Lagging behind when compared to the Rest of The World in Science & Technology - o we have to take Loans from Smaller Countries and learn their Technology for our future.
Re: High time India had Bullet Trains of its own
by ananth ramalingam on Apr 19, 2016 05:22 PM
Good thoughtful points. Don't worry, our basic civics will improve, and will facilitate the measures taken by Govt and civic bodies and hence automatically the STATIONS will be looked after by us like our homes and our properties. our literacy level will take us to balance out violations Vs demand vs growth vs hurdles to over come. Science and technolgy, there is nothing called Smaller or bigger countries, they are directly proportional to THREEs hardwork/commitment/attitude. Examples are Isreal, Japan, ....... Pl equate our future demand and growth and not from the basics of Loans and technology from smaller or bigger countries. Below the ground we are ALSO richer than many countries, Above the ground we are far superior in terms of knowledge, adaptation, culture, tolerance, huge % of young legs, young hands and young brains... These will contribute, but at the same time we should be ever ready to meet their demands, hence Newer ideas are to be implemented, Had there been a thought by Oman, Saudi, UAE, Part of Australia, SA, their economy would be in ruin and would not have been in the Atlas by now. They opened up economy, traded their resources like OIL, Minerals, Manufacturing, ZEMs with DEVELOPMENT to increase their GDP. They have used Indians too.
Most of the period THE CONGRESS ruled India after our independence and NO SUCH " THINK BIG - DO BIG" activities even in paper is seen or heard. Whether it is viable, expenditure is required or NOT are secondary, the initiative of this Govt (BJP) is laudable, and who can negotiate a better deal of 0.1% interest payable after the 16th year, 85% of project cost as loan etc.... Let us unitedly welcome and who knows our children / grand children can see and live in India with pride like people live in USA or Europe.... ,
Re: Bullet Train
by Useless Comments on Apr 20, 2016 05:10 PM
USA or Europe do not have Bullet trains.. they have rejected Bullet trains as it was not economical .... they opted for Air travel...
Re: Re: Re: Bullet Train
by mohit on Apr 24, 2016 01:39 PM
Yes there are some high speed trains in Europe (TGV in france, ICE in germany etc) but their length is very limited. UK hardly has any bullet train because they are not financially viable.
Most of the period THE CONGRESS ruled India after our independence and NO SUCH " THINK BIG - DO BIG" activities even in paper is seen or heard. Whether it is viable, expenditure is required or NOT are secondary, the initiative of this Govt (BJP) is laudable, and who can negotiate a better deal of 0.1% interest payable after the 16th year, 85% of project cost as loan etc.... Let us unitedly welcome and who knows our children / grand children can see and live in India with pride like people live in USA or Europe.... ,
If you will visit Indian Railway website; 15 to 16 approved new rail lines & gauge conversion projects which are important for remote area connectivity in India are waiting funds since 10 - 15 years of their approval which will give vital connectivity to villagers and provide development to region like; Indore-Dahod line, Gwalior Sheopur kalan Kota gauge conversion, Dausa - Gangapur city line, Dholpur Simtura line, Konkan railway line doubling, Lalitpur Satna railine etc. These projects needs funds for people who have not seen rail connectivity since Independence. It looks like development is focused only for few areas. This will create unevenness & inequality in India. More than bullet trains funds for these prior approved projects are required.
Re: No need of bullet trains presently, but remote connectivity f
by Kumaar Guhan on Apr 19, 2016 04:52 PM
Do you mean to cut the head to grow the tail? Bad thinking!
Re: Re: No need of bullet trains presently, but remote connectivi
by shailesh on Apr 20, 2016 12:04 PM
1) money for one project is largely coming from japan and not from india. so both projects can happen simultaneously. the repayment from 40th - 50th year costs of travel shud be sufficient to pay the loan.
2) The government should try to get the loan for 60 or 75 year period. that would be a little better.
There was a hue and cry in 1995 over the Pune Mumbai Expressway. When it was completed in 2000 ppl were still not happy. But now ppl are really praising about it. The Mumbai Airport drop cabs are also making heavy biz. The Ghat section is just superb So let us wait and watch.
