have been expecting this from the last 3 yrs but unfortunately it kept getting postponed because of the artificial stimulus. This is what Shankar Sharma said on et now on 1 aug 2013 almost your words " the equity bull market which started in 2003is in its last 3 or 6 months and it has not yet crossed the sell by date , but when we meet 6 months later it would have crossed the sell by date". The sun is going to change its axis by oct-nov 2014, invariably when the solar cycle peaks, some sort of an economic calamity occurs, i predict ist qrtr, the crash begins in earnest and continues till 2016. current predictions gold 800-900 $, real estate down by 40%,dow 5000-4000. sensex 11500 or nifty 3500.mind you these are not out of the hat predictions , morgan stanley says india 30% over priced, real estate there is a supply glut and cyclical down turn is predicted because the bubble has to burst, the dow has to revert to find its true fundamentals. pls keep updating and send us your email , to keep in touch sonali, thanks so much, samraj
Re: all asset classes to go down in next 3-6 months
by samraj n on Sep 08, 2013 10:43 PM
sorry make the solar peak oct-nov 2013, so that coincides with ms sonalis technicals of a down move 1 st quarter 2014, but then how would it end by jan 2014 as elections dont take place till apr 2014, my surmise is last time the probability if upa coming in was 1/3, this time and polls are spot on upa 126, nda 158, so the prob of upa coming in now is 1/9 , the prob of 3rd front coming in is 8/9, the prob of 2 lower circuits (remember in 2009 it was 2 upper circuits ) is therefore 8/9, wait for sensex 11500 where acclaimed economist russell napier calculates that the long term average trailing p/e of 25 for india is too expensive and therefore half of it ie 11 1/2 on eps of 1000 is closer to 11500 for a super blind buy, till then i am better lending at 11-12%
Re: Re: all asset classes to go down in next 3-6 months
by samraj n on Sep 08, 2013 11:02 PM
brace yourself for 2 lower circuits "We could end up with a Lok Sabha in which, for the first time, the single largest party has less than one-fourth of the 543 seats and no front has even a third. That is what would happen if elections were held now, according to a Times Now-CVoter opinion poll. It projects that the NDA would win 156 seats with the BJP getting 131 of them, while the UPA would win 136 with the Congress pegged to 119.
The poll estimated that the 'Third Front' , which includes the Left, Samajwadi Party, RJD, TDP, BJD and some other regional parties, would win 129 seats and the 'Fourth Front' , including the BSP, Trinamool Congress, AIADMK and others, would win 122. In short, the elections are projected to end up as a fairly even four-way split, though some of these formations like the Third and Fourth Fronts are not really firmly established , at least as of now, and others may also morph in the coming months. "
