We need not wait till 2017 for this to happen. Lot many people have stopped updating and checking updates of friends. Many have even started deleting their Facebook accounts. I guess 2017 is too far for the end.
Facebook is a product born out of a cultural change that was happening. It will only die if this cultural change dies or a new culture of personal sharing arrives which facebook is not a part of, which I don't see happening in the near future.
