In latest assembly elections of U.P., the poll pandits like this author had projected at the most 145 seats to BSP, but the results is known to all of us. This has happen all times about the projections of BSP. I strogly feel, being economists, the analysist and our media is totaly biased, and by underestimating BSP, try to demoralise the BSP cadre. But keep in mind, BSP is having strong cadre, and the cadre has been taught about these pity tactices of media and others who cannot see downtroden taking the political power. My projectios for BSP is 52 seats in U.P., 2 seats in Delhi, 1 seat in Rajasthan, 2 seats in Punjab, 2 seats in Hryana, 3 seats in Maharastra, 2 seats in West Bengal, 3 seats in Madya Pradesh, 1 seat in A.P.,1 seat in Uttranchal. Total is 69. It is difficult to believe these figures, but this is ground reality, which everyone will see on May 16, 2009 before 2 p.m.
Re: BSP will get more than 50 Seats in UP
by Rurbanraga on May 28, 2009 11:43 PM
ground reality is 21 and is never going to increase because Mayawati is herself a Manuwadi...spreading his casteist message still in minds of rural Indians....In real India can progress only under young leaders like Rahul Gandhi ,Sachin Pilot & Akhilesh Yadav
Re: BSP will get more than 50 Seats in UP
by Anjukulam on May 03, 2009 12:56 AM
I am sorry I was talking about BJP. BSP will end up with 30 seats. Congress will definitley spring a surprise and end up near the 20 mark.
Re: Re: BSP will get more than 50 Seats in UP
by kehar singh on May 03, 2009 05:56 AM
In no case Congress will get more than 8 seats in U.P. and more than 100 in total.Congress has lost its vote bank, because this party has taken granted their voters and did not pay any attention. It is too late for congress. Let wait for May 16.
Re: Re: BSP will get more than 50 Seats in UP
by Saraswat Basu on May 03, 2009 07:29 AM
BJP RLD will get 20-25 seats in UP. The number should be close to 25. BJP JD(U) will get 30 in Bihar. BJP SHS will get 32-35 in Maharastra. BJP will get 20 in Gujrat. BJP AGP will get 8-10 in Assam. BJP will get 1 in WB. BJP will get 18-20 in Karnatak. BJP will get 10-12 in Rajasthan. BJP will get 25-30 in MP. BJP Akali will get 10 in Punjab.
Re: Re: Re: BSP will get more than 50 Seats in UP
by thayangiri on May 03, 2009 09:19 AM
Please leave something for others. According to you it seems only BJP is contesting.
Re: Re: Re: Re: BSP will get more than 50 Seats in UP
by RightSaid Fred on May 04, 2009 05:28 PM
Don't worry. He is blinded by the saffron chaddi covering his eyes.
Re: Re: Re: BSP will get more than 50 Seats in UP
by Murali on May 03, 2009 03:26 PM
BJP will get supports from TDP,BJD,AIADMK,PMK,MDMK and even TNC of mamtha after the poll So they will be in a position to form the Govt.If still short of majority definretly they will bargain with Dalit's daughter and get the required support from her.
Re: Re: Re: BSP will get more than 50 Seats in UP
by Vinay Navare on May 03, 2009 03:55 PM
Even with these figures BJP and allies together do not cross 180. And if the estimate goes against, u can imagine.
Re: Re: Re: BSP will get more than 50 Seats in UP
by Murali on May 03, 2009 03:35 PM
BJP will win 5 seats in Delhi,3 seats in HP,1 in AP 3 in J&K,5 seats in orissa and BJP-LD combine will get 7 seats in Hariyana. In TN also ii is not a surprise if BJP wins one seat most likely Kanyakumari wher all the other parties fielded Christians and BJP fielded one HIndu Former minister who has very good image .So BJP though might not come to power but will form a formidable opposition. The third frond or congress will join together to form a Govt after this election but it will fell soon and BJP's chances of coming to power in the next election is high. If Modi is announce as PM candidate then BJP can increase its tally
Re: BSP will get more than 50 Seats in UP
by Kartikey Soni on May 03, 2009 03:24 AM
buddy i really dont know about UP but in MP BSP will not will even one seat and thats for sure spoils there will be shared by BJP and INC. 52 in UP well if she can do that she will most definately be the next PM but i doubt if she can make it so good with so fractured mendate in UP (at least as per what we read or see in media)
Re: BSP will get more than 50 Seats in UP
by pawan on May 03, 2009 12:15 PM
there is totel fracture mandate so expecty cong which has last time 9-10%vote is likely to gain in vote share to 15-16%but not likely to win more seats sp which has 35%vote last time will get around 27-28 %vote and bsp which had 32%last time will get around 27-28% voteand bjp will get around 27-28% same as before so usee that remaining 71 seats all r gettinig nearly same no of seats means around 22-25 seats
It seems we have One Million and One analysis Floating around.
I do not think any one of us can really able to predict any thing at all. Even I do come across One Thousand and One Analysis, each one of them that logically suggests some thing drastically different than rest others, in this small Assembly constituency.
I have my own analysis and I have my own preferences. I am sure that my analysis and my perceptions as regards Mass Psychology is the best. So also are those of all others. Alas, these are so drastically different.
No, no one can predict an Indian Election. There are a billion ifs and buts.
Re: Analysing The Analysis
by kehar singh on May 03, 2009 12:52 AM
Prediction is possible. For predictions, analysist must be unbiased and should follow scintific procedures. But in India you know, the analysist and media making forecasts are directly or indirectly related to one or other party. They are being paid for it. That is the reasons, predictions are not relaiable and generally go wrong.
