The claim of BJP of getting absolute majority of its own and results of opinion and exit polls not withstanding I reiterate that with every passing day the graph of BJP is going to dip. On May 13 not to talk of reaching its outgoing number of 182 in Lok Sabha it will fail to reach 150. It should prepare itself not only to shed the embarassment of poll result but also the shame to stake the claim for the government formation. I pray that Vajpayee will not keep on changing his stand like on Gujarat riots, feels shame on one day eulogises Modi the other day and will display rare statesmanship and decline to form the next govt, amen!
Surveys use mathematical probability. You do not necessarily ask each voter about there opinion. Using laws of probability, it always comes close to reality. BJP is surging ahead in full swing. You want to witness double digit growth, you know whom to vote for.
The sample size and the number of constituencies taken for the exit polls is very low for achieving the real projections. NDTV has taken samples from less than 50 constitutuencies for 140 seats polled.From that 47 or so, they have projected for 140 of the first phase, based on which they have projected the whole of 542.It would be better if other forecasters too make it clear the size of the sample and the no.of consitutuencies taken for arriving at the result.The results given by Headlines Today and NDTV vary a lot for Bihar.Personally I feel NDA will suffer significant losses in Bihar, Tamilnadu and And. Pradesh and marginal losses in Maharasht during the entire polls. But the gains in U.P.and Karnataka would help them well past the 300 mark. If NDA decides to drop Ayodhya factor Mulayam's support is a certainity in case majority of NDA is a problem. For now NDA might end up with 320-330 seats and Congress tally below 100.As the voting day arrives in each place, the sentimental threat of Sonia taking the premier post of the country will loom large before every voter,making them to vote for NDA.Further there is no widespread anger towards the NDA which might ease the NDA to power.
The exit polls conducted by various TV channels lack credibility because they are actually sample surveys. By contacting a few of those who have voted, the exit polls assume that the rest of those who voted did so in a similar manner. Indian voters are infinitely more inscrutable than the proverbial sphinx. When the counting of votes in both phases ends, at least a few of those who conducted these polls will have to make amends for jumping the gun. EMVY
Well the future trend of this poll would largely depend on the Election Commision's judgement on Lucknow case the hearing for which is scheduled on 23rd April, 2004.
