Re: Ply-Off Chances
by abc_xyz abc_xyz on May 15, 2013 04:17 PM
I see many people talk about NRR without having any idea about it. There is a myth sourrounding on the fact that,
if the team wins, its NRR will improve and if it loses, it will reduce. This is utter crap.
NRR stands for Net Run Rate - meaning, the avg run rate at which the team wins/loses per match, of all the matches
it has played so far in the tournament. Still confused?
Suppose, say Team A wins its 1st game by 20 runs. It gets a NRR of 1. In the next game, it could only manage to wi
n by 10 runs. RR margin of the 2nd match is 0.5, so the overall NRR is (1 0.5) /2 = 0.75. So despite winning the
2nd game, Team A's NRR dropped from 1 to 0.75, because on an avg, it has won all the games it has played so far by
0.75*20 (overs) = 15 runs.
Now that NRR is clear, look at the table now. CSK on an avg has WON all the games by 0.62*20 = 12.4 runs MI on an avg has WON all the games by 0.64*20 = 12.8 runs RR on an avg has WON all the games by 0.51*20 = 10.2 runs
and... SRH on an avg has LOST all the games by 0.12*20 = 2.4 runs !!!!! (This is strange to accept. They have won more games than lost, but the issue was, they won the games narrowly and lost heavily.)
Re: Re: Ply-Off Chances
by abc_xyz abc_xyz on May 15, 2013 04:18 PM
As a CSK fan wanting the team to finish in Top2, all I want in today's encounter between MI and RR is either MI thrashing RR (by much more than 12.4 runs) or RR thrashing MI (by much more than 10.2 runs), so that the winning
team's RR goes substainally up and goes ahead of CSK with 22 points, while the losing team remains at distant 3rd
and facing a daunting task of winning its last game by a very big margin. If that happens, CSK can still afford to lose to RCB, but by a small margin, and still remain at 2nd position.
BCCI Should work on possibilities to ad quote of foreign players in IPL teams from 4nos which is very less. Its shame on indian players who have been soo poor this season.. for eg sehway, gambhir, pathan brothers, unmukt, all medium bowlers since we cannot call them fast bowlers since last 2 decades..... and left out spinners...... shame for indian players in IPL
there will be 3 way tie for the top 3 position and slots will be decided on the basis of net run rate between CSK,MI & RR......last place will be decided after the last match between SUN RISERS and KKR........this is IPL boss and everything has to go down to the wire.........and has to be as per the script........any bets on this....
Re: TOP 4
by Alok kumar on May 15, 2013 12:50 PM
Very sad to see the plight of RCB supporter(navin udupa)s.Now they have serious doubt about their one man army putting them in the playoffs.
All the talks about NRR, which could even make the top 3 teams not to quality are crap. NRR isn't going to change substantially at this stage of the tournament and is pretty much going to remain the same. Moroever, MI, CSK and RR have and 0.5 NRR and I doubt if any one of the KKR or RCB or SRH better that should one of those top3 loose all the remaining games and tie on points with the middle teams.
The real fight is for the 4th spot. And I could only see either RCB or SRH taking it ...with a negative NRR, SRH might struggle.
Re: Play-Offs
by rahul agarwal on May 15, 2013 07:27 AM
73% 37% >100%. i am sure that is an unintended error. Do these numbers have any mathematical reasoning or are just made up probabilities?
Re: Re: Play-Offs
by abc_xyz abc_xyz on May 15, 2013 02:00 PM
Yes.that was a typo ..it should have been 67% and 37% at that stage of the tournament. I derived them in excel considering all possible endings, givng a little more weightage to the teams with better NRR.
All the talks about NRR, which could even make the top 3 teams not to quality are crap. NRR isn't going to change substantially at this stage of the tournament and is pretty much going to remain the same. Moroever, MI, CSK and RR have and 0.5 NRR and I doubt if any one of the KKR or RCB or SRH better that should one of those top3 loose all the remaining games and tie on points with the middle teams.
The real fight is for the 4th spot. And I could only see either RCB or SRH taking it ...with a negative NRR, SRH might struggle.
Re: Play-Offs
by SUBROTO RAY on May 15, 2013 05:34 AM
This is too simplistic and does not take into consideration the probability of SRH winning both their last two matches against RR and KKR on their home turf which will put them ahead of RCB on points alone. On the other hand RCB would also be playing a much tougher side CSK in their last match. Hence putting RCB ahead of SRH on probability basis is just a conjecture at this stage and not a tenable proposition.
Re: Re: Play-Offs
by abc_xyz abc_xyz on May 15, 2013 02:04 PM
Well you do have a point on the relative strengths of teams. But I considered all the 1024 possibilities, put them in excel and derived the percentages. I coudn't do much with NRR as it gets really complicated, but gave a weighted mean to it to decide tie breakers. Of course this is thearotical and I consider all teams equal on paper be it CSK or PWI.
