If RR can tackle Malinga's four overs successfully then there is 95% chances of them winning.
It is due to Malinga's blow to the opposition that the Mumbai Indians are winning. Pl. do not forget Malinga got thrased all over the park by Kochi especially by Mcmullam and Jaywardane and Mumbai Indians lost the match.. So if Malinga is handled properly then the weak bowling attack of Mumbai Indians will be easier to be tackled.
Here is where Rahul Dravid skills will come to the advantage of Rajasthan Royals...
Should MI want to help out Shane then they should rest Malinga.In that case RR stand reasonable chance of winning.Even otherwise MI should test their side worth w/o Malinga.