It would be nice if you could compare the predicted score with the actual score over the past 30 or 40 ODI's and post it online for us to read. A better thing would be to make 3 predictions (after each power play ends) for every match and compare the relative accuracy.
RE:How accurate is it?
by beni thamarasseril on Feb 18, 2007 11:43 AM
Yes i agree that would be a good way to look at it. I also had a doubt with the author of this article.
If the team has last 1 wicket at the 10 over mark the divisor is 15.8 and if 2 wicket then its 22.2, which means its considering all the available resources at the same potential. But for a team like SA that has a line up with Andrew Hall comming at No. 9 or 10 (who incidently has also played as an opening batsman) has more potential than a team like say Bangladesh.
Am not trying to look at it from a half empty point of view but just doing some constructive criticism. May be if there is a way to measure potentials of Teams/Batting Order(Which i honestly believe will potentially have enough potential to have many more arguments) it could be a little more better.
I agree with everyone, off what is available D/L is the best mathematical system on the shelf. Its a good attempt and it can only get better.
We lost by 1 run to Australia by Rain Rule. We had about 3 overs reduced and only 1 or 2 deducted though this was not at the fag end like it happened to SA.
D/L rule by all means is the best invention in cricket so far, many remember the world cup in 92,let me remind U no D/L rule was followed that time rather a silly rule called "Rain rule" was followed.
D/l rule is purely done by stats and gives more or less a fair decision to both the teams, but yes the rule could be improved but critising the rule would be silly where we have no substitute to bank on and add to it the system works very fine.
The problem is that not many understand the rule, but as the days go by everybody will understand it so it wont be much of a problem.
D/L rule has more often than not been unfair to one side. remember the fiasco of 1992 world cup SA was to score 20 runs off one ball. I wud rather say- if its a day-night match, they shud try and extend the play time (if possible, else call off) than favouring one team unduely. But then, some rule has to be there for sure.. And D/L's been there for quite a while now until a new and more robust formulae comes up...
RE:getting there
by rayker rayker on Feb 17, 2007 03:56 PM
good pointer in that 20 runs in a ball, yeah with so much resources, they ought to replace such an old formula.
RE:getting there
by rk lingala on Feb 17, 2007 06:52 PM
Excuse me, I think U donet know cricketmuch, D/L method was not employe that time, they rather had a silly rule like rain rule, ifD/L rule would have been there SA would have been in finals in 1992 world cup.
RE:RE:getting there
by J P Malik on Feb 17, 2007 07:30 PM
Yes u r right, during that competition, the teams were penalized for the best overs done by them. For example A team bowls 3 mainden overs and another three produced say 30 runs. In such condition The second team need to score 31 runs in six overs but if the match is reduced to 3 overs for some reasons, the team still needs to score 31 runs in the remain three overs. Rediculous the second bettting team is penalized for its good bowling. And all cricket genious of the world agreed to it for that tournament. D/L is so far maiximum used, definitely for its good reasons though the experts still find lots of scope of improvement in it.
RE:getting there
by senthil kaliappan on Feb 17, 2007 05:03 PM
the D/L method has mostly been unfair to one side. they shud probably come up with something better.
RE:getting there
by Umesh Shah on Feb 17, 2007 07:53 PM
Dr. Swain ... Please get your facts right ... DL wasn't used in 1992 game which you are refering to. Some weird "Rain Rule" was in vogue then.
RE:getting there
by Jay on Feb 17, 2007 06:22 PM
Hello! that match you were talking about was the 92 world cup. D/L method didn't exist then. That method was the most ridiculous rule ever employed, where the side batting second had a huge disadvantage. D/L method has by far been the most non-controversial method in "predicting" the final score, so it is continuing for almost 10 years.
