The question that seems to be bandied about is what would motivate Sri Lanka to win against India given that they have more or less made it through to the Super 8's (barring the remotest possibility that India thrashes Sri Lanka and Bangladesh then thrashes Bermuda by more than 350 runs). Now, I believe that on current form and momentum Sri Lanka are favourites to win the India-SL tie (not clear favourites but slightly ahead of India). So what would they choose: perform to form and get a narrow win over India OR underperform slightly and let India win the match narrowly. If SL wins then India is out, Bangladesh are in and SL goes through with 2 points. If they lose, India is in and SL carries 0 points. An argument has been expressed earlier saying that SL would want to keep the contest for semi spots alive by letting India through at their own expense. This argument is completely wrong. Here's why. There are two base scenarios: (a) SL and India go through: SL - 0, Ind - 2 The best result for SL is then Ind beats everyone else. So versus India, everybody else has 0 points and are on the same plate as SL. Meanwhile India emerge top of the group and book their SF spot. SL fights it out for the 3 spots with 6 other teams (discounting Ireland) who have an advantage since 3 of them carried 2 points from their group. The worst result would be if India loses to everyone else. Then SL is on 0 and others are on 2 points vis-a-vis India. (b) SL and Ban go through: SL - 2, Ban - 0 The best result is if Ban beats everyone else. So SL will have 2 point vs Ban and others will have 0 points. Meanwhile Ban are assured of a SF spot. SL battles with 6 others (again Ireland discounted) for 3 SF spots with the chance of facing Ban again in semis (and thus assuring a finals spot). The worst result is if Ban loses to everyone else. Then all teams will be on 2 points with regard to Ban and SL will be at par with others. SL then fights for 4 SF spots with 6 teams.
Summarising, SL's best result with Ind present would mean fighting for 3 spots with 6 teams (that include Aus, RSA, NZ) and the possibility of facing a confident India in semis. SL's worst result with Ban would mean fighting for 4 spots with 6 teams. Clearly, even the worst result with Ban is better than the best result with India. If I were the SL think tank, I know what I would choose. :) Of course, all this talk is unnecessary if we realize a simple truth. It is always better to go into the Super 8's with 2 points than with no points at all.
RE:RE:Would Sri Lanka prefer India or Bangladesh in the Super 8's?
by Cricket Lover on Mar 22, 2007 09:50 PM Permalink
Point taken. My entire agenda while writing this particular piece was that people realise the difference between 'making the World Cup interesting' and 'winning the World Cup'. For me and millions of cricket lovers, we would like India to get to the Super 8's since then the matches would become competitive and interesting. The Sri Lankan team (a mere 15-20 people) would like nothing more than the Super 8's to look like Zim, Ire, Ned, Sco, Ban, Can, Ken and SL since they want to WIN THE WORLD CUP (like all other teams). If we confuse our interests with those of the Sri Lankan team then we land up with logic like 'SL would want Ind in Super 8 since they want the SF spots as open as possible'. Of course, if you still feel that 'Kichadi paka di', please read the last lines of my post. That should present the clearest picture.
