Arjun, this is great idea. An American military think tank published a futuristic map in one of its journals where NWFP and Baluchistan. Now Pushto nationalism is getting mixed with islamic extremism and NWFP is getting destabilized. If somehow pathan generals in the Pakistani military revolt against the Punjabi ruling elite, NWFP separation is not beyond possibility. Baluchi nationalists are not getting strength only because Iran fears that Baluchis on Irani side will revolt against Iran. But if NWFP separates, they can establish bases there are start a separatist insurgency from there. Sindh is difficult because Sindhis are in minority in the military and the division between Muhajirs and Sindhis will prevent a joint fight against Punjabis. But yes, if Pakistan breaks, it will be advantageous to India not just for oil pipeline but also for the regional dominance. However, Pakistan will split only if America favors the split, at least does not prevent it by supporting the central government. Russia is no more a player in the region. The separation of central asian republics have increased the geographic distance of Russia from the South Asian region.
