Mr.Manik, ur logic is good, but to some extent. u mentioned these 2 occurances 1)either RR or KXIP can enter semi-final & 2)either DC or RCB can enter semi-final.
but, what if RCB loses to DD and manages to win over DC, then both RCB and DC will have 14 points each. and if RR wins on KKR, RR will have 15 points. similarly, KXIP wins on CSK, KXIP will have 16 points.
Now tell me in this scenario how can ur assumptions can come true. my friend.....these are all 20-20 matches nothing can be expected much early.