The survey showed what we Kannadigas knew all along. While it succeeded in establishing the trend - Congress coasting to victory, it failed to grasp the scale.
The BJP has termed Karnataka Assembly polls as their Gateway to South India. It will turn out to be the Graveyard and with that, whole of South India will be purified from the evil force - BJP
RE:The BJP can be reduced to Single Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on May 01, 2008 02:43 AM Permalink
The Deccan-Herald pre-poll survey that BJP is not only a Lingayat party but that too confined to Mumbai-Karnataka region, where they are expected to sweep. This is the region where Lingayats concentrate in high numbers.
The Congress is main challenger to the BJP in this region. Consequently if all non-Lingayats in that region consolidate their voting around Congress than BJP will be practically wiped out from Karnataka competing with minor parties like SP, JD(U), BSP for third place.
RE:RE:The BJP can be reduced to Single Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on May 01, 2008 02:43 AM Permalink
hy even 70 seats is too much. They can be reduced to single digits.
The CNN-IBN survey has showed that the BJP lacks a pan Karnataka character. It is mainly supported by Lingayats concentrated in the Mumbai-Karnataka region (50 seats)where it is poised to sweep. In all other regions, BJP is wiped out or trailing a distant second.
So two steps is all that is required to reduce BJP to single digits:
1. Informal election understanding among secular parties like they did in the case of Yediruppa - JD(S) not fielding a candidate and Congress fielding a very weak candidate - the combined impact consolidates the anti-BJP votes. This has happened already.
2. Tactical voting by non-Lingayats against BJP to counter the Lingayat consolidation behind BJP
This way, the Congress wins and the JD(S) becomes the main opposition party - the good old days of decent politics without riots!
RE:The BJP can be reduced to Single Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on May 01, 2008 02:44 AM Permalink
by srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:12 PM | Hide replies
Part I continued:
5. with the entry of war horse Bangarappa, the situation is becoming dramatic in the home constituency of Yeddi. Here is a piquant situation. Of the voting population here (around 1, 60,000), you can see the following caste domination:
Lingayats and Veershaivas: 55,000 Idigas: 30,000 Kurubas (Siddaramaiah's caste): 20,000 Lamabanis: 15,000 OBCs and Dalits: 30,000 Muslims, Christians and others: 10,000
Congress and JDS are not contesting and together they have about 25,000 votes.
Now, assuming that (with a voter turnout of 80%)
25% of Idigas, 75% of Veershaivas, 25% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- 65,000
Likewise, Bangarappa may get 75% of Idigas, 25% of Veershaivas, 75% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- almost close to 65,000
It seems that there is a tough fight for Shikaripur seat. If all Non BJP votes solidify as one, there may be a cliffhanger of a result!
The PMO is abused by the minister to favor his kin and the PM helplessly says nothing unusual in this.
We want to know in how many times the PMO has written for favours to the kith and kin of the ministerial colleagues.
We believe the PM personally is not involved, but who is remote controlling the PMO? This is not a good sign for the country.
WHY IS THE MEDIA LOW KEY ON SUCH AN IMPORTANT ISSUE?
The same media went hammer and tongs against Bangaru Laxman, Jaya Jaitley some years ago on arms gate (Tehelka story). Why such studied silence NOW? Are we having an impartial media? Or, are they afraid of someone? Or, are they on their roles?
This survey conducted by DH/CNN-IBN predicts that 39% of the respondents said that they would vote for Congress, 28%for BJP and 20% for JDS. They also said that more than a third of the respondents said that they would change their minds and most of them belonged to BJP/JDS.
We know the credentials of Rajdeep Sardesai and the way he was made to eat his words by Narendra Modi. I am no fan of BJP but between Rajdeep and BJP, I would rather trust the latter.
As far as DH is concerned, the less said the better. It is a rabidly pro-congress paper. It may be okay as a news paper but useless for any other purpose.
In the final analysis, dump the whole survey that has no ground realities.
CNN-IBN along with Deccan Herald and CSDS ..ALL PRIDECTED THAT CONGRESS WILL COME TO POWER IN PUNJAB...CONGRESS GOT HAMMERED...THEY ALL PREDICTED CONGREDD COME TO POWER IN GUJARAT...CONGRESS GOT HAMMERED AGAIN...THE ALL PREDICTED THAT CONGRESS WILL COME BACK TO POWER IN HIMACHAL PARDESH AND CHITTISGARGH...CONGRESS GOT ROITED IN THERE..... SO HOW MANY MORE PREDICTIONS DO YOU WANT TO SEE...
by srikanth hegde on Apr 30, 2008 06:12 PM | Hide replies
Part I continued:
5. with the entry of war horse Bangarappa, the situation is becoming dramatic in the home constituency of Yeddi. Here is a piquant situation. Of the voting population here (around 1, 60,000), you can see the following caste domination:
Lingayats and Veershaivas: 55,000 Idigas: 30,000 Kurubas (Siddaramaiah's caste): 20,000 Lamabanis: 15,000 OBCs and Dalits: 30,000 Muslims, Christians and others: 10,000
Congress and JDS are not contesting and together they have about 25,000 votes.
Now, assuming that (with a voter turnout of 80%)
25% of Idigas, 75% of Veershaivas, 25% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- 65,000
Likewise, Bangarappa may get 75% of Idigas, 25% of Veershaivas, 75% of Kurubas and Lambanis vote for Yeddi, the total votes come to around- almost close to 65,000
It seems that there is a tough fight for Shikaripur seat. If all Non BJP votes solidify as one, there may be a cliffhanger of a result!
We all know the outcome of surveys during Gujarat elections.Modi with his landslide victory proved that surveys are not realistic but are biased towards some particular. Here in this case, the survey is conducted by Deccan Herald and CNN IBN.we all know deccan herald supports congress party(there is a very valid reaon for this).So one should not care for these biased surveys and VOTE BJP THIS TIME.It's a fight between BJP and NON-BJP(Congress,GD(s)ie. Deve gowda & sons,SP,...).congress is very desperate to win in karnataka as it is lost in almost all elections held recently.So they are having a secret understanding with GD(S) and SP keeping the voters in dark. Come whatever, nothing can stop BJP from coming to power
Why even 60 seats is too much. The BJP can be reduced to single digits.
The CNN-IBN survey has showed that the BJP lacks a pan Karnataka character. It is mainly supported by Lingayats concentrated in the Mumbai-Karnataka region (50 seats) it is poised to sweep. In all other regions, BJP is wiped out or trailing a distant second.
So two steps is all that is required to reduce BJP to single digits:
1. Informal election understanding among secular parties like they did in the case of Yediruppa - JD(S) not fielding a candidate and Congress fielding a very weak candidate - the combined impact consolidates the anti-BJP votes. This has happened already.
2. Tactical voting by non-Lingayats against BJP to counter the Lingayat consolidation behind BJP
How reliable are opinion polls? Psephology is a science and subject to errors.
The biggest goof-up including NDTV had been the 2004 Lok Sabha polls where most polls indicated a clear win for the NDA. NDTV gave NDA 230-250 seats to UPA's 190-205.
Contrary to BJP and its supporters insinuations that CNN-IBN got Gujurat wrong, the naked fact is that the channel was spot on. This can be verified by refering to their past predictions published in both print media or internet. The Times of India published CNN-IBN Gujurat exit polls giving - BJP 92-100 Congress 77-85
Misgivings if any was that their survey failed to project the real magnitude of BJP's win in Gujurat. An analysis of all past opinion polls show that this is more a reflection of methodological failure to convert votes into seat shares.
Opinion polls are accurate pointing the direction the wind blows but seems unable to capture the magnitude of impact of voter's mood precisely in terms of seats. In Gujurat (a 10% vote lead) this led the BJP to get more than their predicted seat share. The Congress in Karnataka holds a 10% vote lead and accordingly on the way to a much larger victory than predicted by CNN-IBN.
The survey showed what we Kannadigas knew all along. While it succeeded in establishing the trend - Congress coasting to victory, it failed to grasp the scale.
The BJP has termed Karnataka Assembly polls as their Gateway to South India. It will turn out to be the Graveyard and with that, whole of South India will be purified from the evil force - BJP
Before first vote is cast, congress gives BJP first seat (Davanagere North). Davanagere North was alloted to Shaffi Ahmed. But supporters of former minster Mallikarjunappa (His father Shivashankarappa is contesting Davanagere South) snatched BForm from Congress observeres and erased Shaffi Ahmed's name and wrote Mallikarjun's name. Returning officer rejected the congress application ensuring easy win for 3 time winner S.A.Ravindranath of BJP. (Scoring self goal congress way). It should affect neighbouring Davanagere North (For the first time BJP gained control of Davanager City Corporation last year) and surrounding 10 seats. Yogendra Yadav are you ready to eat crow when they announce results on May 25.
RE:Congress will come back in Karnataka: Poll
by Suresh Gowda on Apr 30, 2008 06:29 PM Permalink
There are congress rebels in over 50 seats. Even if BSP does not snatch votes, if rebels snatch few 1000 votes in every seat it is enough to congress goose. It would require Rajeev Gandhi like sweep to get congress majority which happenned over 25 years back.
RE:Congress will come back in Karnataka: Poll
by on Apr 30, 2008 06:47 PM Permalink
The Rajiv Gandhi sweep is on the way. Rebels may get some 300-500 votes. Nothing more. It is the flag you stand that attracts the votes whether it is Congress, BJP, JD(S). Since all parties have their own rebel problems, the net effect cancels itself out
RE:RE:Congress will come back in Karnataka: Poll
by on Apr 30, 2008 06:50 PM Permalink
The Davengere North was in any case not a winnable seat for the Congress. But the BJP may still not wi n the seat - the secular consolidation behind the next best candidate whether SP or JD(S).
That's the problem with BJP - counting their chickens before they hatch
