The survey showed what we Kannadigas knew all along. While it succeeded in establishing the trend - Congress coasting to victory, it failed to grasp the scale.
The BJP has termed Karnataka Assembly polls as their Gateway to South India. It will turn out to be the Graveyard and with that, whole of South India will be purified from the evil force - BJP
RE:BJP can ne Reduced to a Single Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on May 01, 2008 01:49 PM Permalink
The Deccan-Herald pre-poll survey that BJP is not only a Lingayat party but that too confined to Mumbai-Karnataka region, where they are expected to sweep. This is the region where Lingayats concentrate in high numbers.
The Congress is main challenger to the BJP in this region. Consequently if all non-Lingayats in that region consolidate their voting around Congress than BJP will be practically wiped out from Karnataka competing with minor parties like SP, JD(U), BSP for third place.
RE:RE:BJP can ne Reduced to a Single Digit
by Tathagata Mukherjee on May 01, 2008 01:50 PM Permalink
Why even 70 seats is too much. They can be reduced to single digits.
The CNN-IBN survey has showed that the BJP lacks a pan Karnataka character. It is mainly supported by Lingayats concentrated in the Mumbai-Karnataka region (50 seats)where it is poised to sweep. In all other regions, BJP is wiped out or trailing a distant second.
So two steps is all that is required to reduce BJP to single digits:
1. Informal election understanding among secular parties like they did in the case of Yediruppa - JD(S) not fielding a candidate and Congress fielding a very weak candidate - the combined impact consolidates the anti-BJP votes. This has happened already.
2. Tactical voting by non-Lingayats against BJP to counter the Lingayat consolidation behind BJP
This way, the Congress wins and the JD(S) becomes the main opposition party - the good old days of decent politics without riots!
How reliable are opinion polls? Psephology is a science and subject to errors.
The biggest goof-up including NDTV had been the 2004 Lok Sabha polls where most polls indicated a clear win for the NDA. NDTV gave NDA 230-250 seats to UPA's 190-205. Almost all the English news channel predicted similarly. The knickerwallahs then used to cite these polls to bloster BJP's chances.
Contrary to BJP and its supporters insinuations that CNN-IBN got Gujurat wrong, the naked fact is that the channel was spot on. This can be verified by refering to their past predictions published in both print media or internet. The Times of India published CNN-IBN Gujurat exit polls giving - BJP 92-100 Congress 77-85
Misgivings if any was that their survey failed to project the real magnitude of BJP's win in Gujurat. An analysis of all past opinion polls show that this is more a reflection of methodological failure to convert votes into seat shares.
Opinion polls are accurate pointing the direction the wind blows but seems unable to capture the magnitude of impact of voter's mood precisely in terms of seats. In Gujurat (a 10% vote lead) this led the BJP to get more than their predicted seat share. The Congress in Karnataka holds a 10% vote lead and accordingly on the way to a much larger victory than predicted by CNN-IBN
There is no surprise that cogress will win because Deccan Herald is pro-congress print media. One thing to sure congress will not get power in Karnataka. There are totally ten leaders in congrees to want CM post. these leaders are divided. The inner figting in congress candidates will give BJP to power.
Its true that the people of karnataka have realised the dirty politics of Kumarswamy and instability, anf inflation and price hike of Congress govt so they have decided any way Yeduappa will be the next cm
BJP- always bahu jatheeyavadi party. trying by bringing modi. he already having mud in mind. this is not gujarat. this is IT karnataka ok.just remind MODI. his rally in puttur he himself frustrated viewing very less people. he may not comeback for further rally.
RE:CONGRESS ALWAYS CONGRESS. soniya .
by Hemanta on May 01, 2008 11:07 AM Permalink
why you are so unhappy with Modi, that may be ur IT Karnataka , but you the people have to decide about your future how the Kumarswamy has betrayed the whole nation which is their genetic, so pls bring back BJpp with full majority.
RE:CONGRESS ALWAYS CONGRESS. soniya .
by on May 02, 2008 02:09 PM Permalink
who the hell you are... do you know the modi work... go to Gulbarga, where your congress leader elected continuosly elected lat 7 election.. the condidation of that area is unbeliavable.. they cant walk also.. how they will take karnataka towordas progress
RE:Muslims and christians are terrorists
by prakash on May 01, 2008 03:47 AM Permalink
BJP do not represent Hindus, it is the least evil, any time bwtter than congress ,commies..
How reliable are opinion polls? Psephology is a science and subject to errors.
The biggest goof-up including NDTV had been the 2004 Lok Sabha polls where most polls indicated a clear win for the NDA. NDTV gave NDA 230-250 seats to UPA's 190-205. Almost all the English news channel predicted similarly. The knickerwallahs then used to cite these polls to bloster BJP's chances.
Contrary to BJP and its supporters insinuations that CNN-IBN got Gujurat wrong, the naked fact is that the channel was spot on. This can be verified by refering to their past predictions published in both print media or internet. The Times of India published CNN-IBN Gujurat exit polls giving - BJP 92-100 Congress 77-85
Misgivings if any was that their survey failed to project the real magnitude of BJP's win in Gujurat. An analysis of all past opinion polls show that this is more a reflection of methodological failure to convert votes into seat shares.
Opinion polls are accurate pointing the direction the wind blows but seems unable to capture the magnitude of impact of voter's mood precisely in terms of seats. In Gujurat (a 10% vote lead) this led the BJP to get more than their predicted seat share. The Congress in Karnataka holds a 10% vote lead and accordingly on the way to a much larger victory than predicted by CNN-IBN
RE:Are English News Channels Biased towards Congress? Lies, Lies, More Lies
by SRINIVAS DJ on May 01, 2008 01:10 PM Permalink
you are right Mr.Mukherjee !!
RE:Are English News Channels Biased towards Congress? Lies, Lies, More Lies
by sujeeth on May 01, 2008 07:57 PM Permalink
indeed congress is dead. long live congress
RE:Are English News Channels Biased towards Congress? Lies, Lies, More Lies
by prakash on May 01, 2008 03:45 AM Permalink
Taquiya Mukharjeee, why dont you come with your name or ID to spread lies among non belivers...
